Preseason Rankings
Texas Tech
Big 12
2018-19
Overall
Predictive Rating+11.7#29
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace66.0#254
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+4.9#55
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+6.7#13
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.6% 0.6% 0.0%
#1 Seed 2.8% 2.8% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 6.5% 18.4% 3.8%
Top 4 Seed 18.3% 18.4% 3.8%
Top 6 Seed 33.2% 18.4% 3.8%
NCAA Tourney Bid 57.5% 57.7% 21.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 53.9% 54.2% 18.6%
Average Seed 6.1 6.1 7.6
.500 or above 81.7% 81.9% 43.9%
.500 or above in Conference 51.4% 51.6% 27.5%
Conference Champion 7.1% 7.1% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 10.2% 10.0% 29.7%
First Four2.4% 2.4% 2.1%
First Round56.5% 56.8% 21.6%
Second Round37.1% 37.3% 11.9%
Sweet Sixteen18.2% 18.3% 5.9%
Elite Eight8.4% 8.5% 0.0%
Final Four3.8% 3.8% 0.0%
Championship Game1.7% 1.7% 0.0%
National Champion0.7% 0.7% 0.0%

Next Game: Incarnate Word (Home) - 99.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 6 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1.9 - 5.71.9 - 5.7
Quad 1b2.5 - 2.74.4 - 8.4
Quad 24.4 - 2.48.8 - 10.9
Quad 33.4 - 0.712.2 - 11.5
Quad 47.1 - 0.119.3 - 11.7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 330   Incarnate Word W 82-59 99%    
  Nov 09, 2018 344   Mississippi Valley W 83-57 99.7%   
  Nov 13, 2018 236   SE Louisiana W 75-59 96%    
  Nov 19, 2018 58   USC W 72-69 59%    
  Nov 20, 2018 35   Nebraska W 70-69 51%    
  Nov 24, 2018 172   Northern Colorado W 78-66 91%    
  Dec 01, 2018 101   Memphis W 72-65 74%    
  Dec 05, 2018 332   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 79-56 99%    
  Dec 12, 2018 328   Northwestern St. W 79-56 99%    
  Dec 15, 2018 230   Abilene Christian W 77-61 95%    
  Dec 20, 2018 4   Duke L 71-78 28%    
  Dec 28, 2018 311   UT Rio Grande Valley W 85-65 98%    
  Jan 02, 2019 11   @ West Virginia L 69-72 29%    
  Jan 05, 2019 14   Kansas St. L 65-68 51%    
  Jan 08, 2019 53   Oklahoma W 79-76 68%    
  Jan 12, 2019 26   @ Texas L 65-66 38%    
  Jan 16, 2019 30   Iowa St. W 72-71 60%    
  Jan 19, 2019 48   @ Baylor W 68-66 47%    
  Jan 22, 2019 14   @ Kansas St. L 65-68 32%    
  Jan 26, 2019 94   Arkansas W 75-68 79%    
  Jan 28, 2019 28   TCU L 72-73 59%    
  Feb 02, 2019 1   @ Kansas L 68-76 18%    
  Feb 04, 2019 11   West Virginia L 69-72 48%    
  Feb 09, 2019 53   @ Oklahoma W 79-76 48%    
  Feb 13, 2019 74   @ Oklahoma St. W 73-68 55%    
  Feb 16, 2019 48   Baylor W 68-66 66%    
  Feb 23, 2019 1   Kansas L 68-76 34%    
  Feb 27, 2019 74   Oklahoma St. W 73-68 73%    
  Mar 02, 2019 28   @ TCU L 72-73 39%    
  Mar 04, 2019 26   Texas L 65-66 58%    
  Mar 09, 2019 30   @ Iowa St. W 72-71 41%    
Projected Record 19.3 - 11.7 8.7 - 9.3




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 1.4 1.9 1.7 1.0 0.5 0.0 7.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 1.2 2.8 2.9 1.6 0.5 0.1 9.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 2.2 4.3 3.6 1.1 0.1 0.0 11.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.7 5.0 3.1 0.6 0.1 0.0 11.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 2.7 5.2 3.0 0.4 0.0 11.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 2.8 5.3 2.5 0.4 0.0 11.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 2.9 4.9 2.5 0.3 0.0 11.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.8 3.0 4.2 2.0 0.2 0.0 10.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.6 3.2 1.5 0.2 0.0 8.9 9th
10th 0.2 0.7 1.6 1.8 1.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 6.4 10th
Total 0.2 0.7 1.8 2.9 5.0 7.3 9.2 10.5 11.1 11.1 10.7 9.1 7.6 5.5 3.7 2.2 1.0 0.5 0.0 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.5    0.5 0.0
16-2 94.3% 1.0    0.9 0.1
15-3 77.7% 1.7    1.2 0.4 0.1
14-4 51.9% 1.9    1.1 0.7 0.1
13-5 24.8% 1.4    0.4 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.0
12-6 6.9% 0.5    0.0 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 7.1% 7.1 4.2 2.2 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 100.0% 79.1% 20.9% 1.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-1 0.5% 100.0% 36.0% 64.0% 1.5 0.3 0.2 0.0 100.0%
16-2 1.0% 100.0% 31.2% 68.8% 1.4 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-3 2.2% 100.0% 31.7% 68.3% 2.0 0.7 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-4 3.7% 100.0% 15.5% 84.5% 2.6 0.6 1.0 1.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-5 5.5% 99.8% 15.3% 84.5% 3.5 0.3 0.9 1.6 1.5 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.7%
12-6 7.6% 99.8% 14.2% 85.5% 4.5 0.1 0.5 1.6 1.8 1.8 1.0 0.6 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.7%
11-7 9.1% 98.0% 9.9% 88.1% 5.7 0.0 0.0 0.6 1.3 2.2 2.4 1.3 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 97.8%
10-8 10.7% 93.2% 6.6% 86.6% 6.8 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.6 2.5 1.9 1.6 0.9 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.7 92.7%
9-9 11.1% 79.6% 8.0% 71.7% 8.1 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.3 1.6 1.7 1.4 1.2 0.8 0.2 0.0 2.3 77.9%
8-10 11.1% 53.8% 5.4% 48.4% 9.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 1.3 1.3 1.2 0.9 0.2 0.1 0.0 5.1 51.1%
7-11 10.5% 22.8% 4.0% 18.8% 9.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.1 19.6%
6-12 9.2% 7.3% 2.4% 4.8% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.5 5.0%
5-13 7.3% 2.4% 2.4% 0.1% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 7.1 0.1%
4-14 5.0% 1.7% 1.7% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 4.9
3-15 2.9% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 2.9
2-16 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 1.8
1-17 0.7% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 0.7
0-18 0.2% 7.6% 7.6% 16.0 0.0 0.2
Total 100% 57.5% 7.7% 49.8% 6.1 2.8 3.8 5.9 5.9 7.0 7.9 6.3 5.8 4.4 3.9 2.8 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 42.5 53.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 1.0 100.0